Just 3 in 10 aviation executives believe their strategy can adequately address the emerging risk challenges of the next decade

LONDON, July 17, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- 130 senior aviation representatives took part in our new report, Understanding emerging risks in the aviation industry by Willis, a WTW business (NASDAQ:WTW). Of these, only one in two declared themselves confident that their business model and strategy are resilient to today’s emerging risks environment, and only 30% believe their strategy will be fit for purpose over the next decade.

In addition, 80% of key decision makers and 90% of those involved in teams leading or implementing risk strategies were unable to identify their organization’s definition of emerging risk. Almost half of the respondents in the sector (49%) were unable to identify their company’s top five emerging risks.

Other key findings include:

• Climate transition: Climate change is viewed as a significant threat to the aviation industry, impacting operational resilience, financial performance and stakeholder trust. Fixed-asset aviation operators – such as airports, fuel suppliers and cargo handlers – are particularly exposed to the exogenous risks associated with climate change. Nearly one in three (29%) of all respondents mention climate change in their overall top five emerging risks, one in five (20%) put the climate transition as a top five source of emerging risks in the next two years and one in two (50%) chose the environmental category as one of their top five sources of emerging risks in the next 10 years.
• Geopolitical and economic risks: Geopolitical and economic risks are closely tied and seen to have an outsized influence on opportunity and business plans. Concerns about financial shock, geopolitical instability, government business policy, trade sanctions and business financial risk affect all companies in the sector. Insurance gaps are also mentioned in this context, suggesting an unsated appetite for economic risk transfer products among aviation organizations. Geopolitical and economic outlook risks feature in the top 5 risks in all time horizons: risks of today, of the next two years and the next 10 years. They are also at the top in terms of interconnectivity, with the most volume of risk connections declared.
• Cyber risks: As the hosts and owners of critical national infrastructure and systems, aviation companies are perennially in the crosshairs of cybercriminals. 11% of respondents see this as the industry’s most significant current risk (on par with supply chain risks) and it also features heavily over the five- and 10-year timescales. It is closely connected with AI, which is seen as an enabler of both hackers and internet security providers.
• Artificial intelligence: AI is viewed as a risk in the immediate timescale, taking the top position for 36% of respondents, but drops out of the top five when looking at a two-year and ten-year horizon. One airport executive shared a dual concern around the exposure that comes from using AI and the risk of not using it and being left behind. For example, there is potential for the industry to deploy AI to gather insight on minor incidents that lead to attritional claims. These are estimated to represent half to two thirds of the value of aviation insurance claims in any given year, and there is a clear incentive for the insurance and risk management sector to work with the industry to develop tools or services that can reduce their number or severity.

The unique nature of aviation as an industry puts it in an interesting position when it comes to technology as a whole and the development of AI specifically. Airports compete geographically and airlines on routes, but because many airports and airlines are seen as important parts of national infrastructure, there are often very strict rules around ownership. The industry’s structure has also made it relatively open to sharing appropriate data, particularly where safety is involved. This could potentially mean that any successful AI tools and services will spread relatively quickly through the industry over the next few years, without outsized benefits for any particular organization.

John Rooley, CEO, Willis Aviation & Space, said: “The challenges we face today in the aviation industry, whether it’s the business implications of AI, cyberattacks, disruptions to the global supply chain or energy transition, demand a re-evaluation of how we perceive and manage emerging and interconnected risks. But our survey shows that aviation experts, traditionally superb at long-term planning that accommodates fleet renewals, infrastructure development and regulatory compliance, have been struggling to define the emerging risk landscape. The time has come to take a proactive stance and align planning with a forward-thinking approach that embraces adaptability and resilience.”

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Media contact

Lauren David
Lauren.david@wtwco.com

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